Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:18 am at Los Angeles); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 18% on a calm day. Safest: UA 637 at 16:10, 31%.

Safest bet today UA 637 LAX 16:10 → MRY 17:30 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5398 LAX 18:56 → MRY 20:24 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 637 United	LAX 16:10	MRY 17:30	31%	9%	0.4%	no record
UA 1363 United Flight history →	LAX 19:22	MRY 20:36	35%	8%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
UA 5398 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:56	MRY 20:24	36%	8%	1.5%	91%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON