Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 792 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 792 LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2180 LAX 18:50 → MSP 00:20 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 792 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:15	MSP 11:52	5%	2%	0.2%	94%
DL 799 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:05	MSP 13:42	11%	3%	0.7%	90%
DL 2084 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:30	MSP 06:07	12%	4%	0.2%	64%
DL 430 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:00	MSP 05:29	12%	3%	0.2%	89%
DL 413 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:15	MSP 16:50	14%	5%	0.7%	88%
DL 914 Delta Flight history →	LAX 12:35	MSP 18:11	17%	5%	0.6%	82%
DL 2198 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:22	MSP 20:59	19%	5%	0.7%	86%
DL 2180 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:50	MSP 00:20	20%	6%	0.7%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON