Today: DL 1112 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–37%.

Safest bet today DL 1112 LAX 06:20 → MSY 12:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 4311 LAX 12:10 → MSY 18:00 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1112 Delta Flight history →	LAX 06:20	MSY 12:13	7%	2%	0.3%	90%
WN 1843 Southwest	LAX 08:10	MSY 14:03	19%	4%	0.2%	no record
DL 2154 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:00	MSY 23:46	24%	9%	1.0%	73%
DL 2096 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:20	MSY 16:10	26%	5%	0.3%	75%
WN 4311 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 12:10	MSY 18:00	37%	8%	0.2%	77%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 05:00 → DAL 10:05WN 4128	52m Dallas	DAL 10:57 → MSY 12:35WN 4831	5h 35m	85%	65%
American Details →	LAX 10:00 → PHX 11:28AA 1668	1h 02m Phoenix	PHX 12:30 → MSY 17:34AA 2191	5h 34m	79%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON