tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:54 am at Los Angeles); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 45% (calm day: 34%). Best bet: American via Phoenix, leaving 16:39, 22% on time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 4898 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 17:22 OKC 22:26 31% 10% 0.4% 87%worse than usual
OO 6427 SkyWest LAX 17:04 OKC 22:08 32% 11% 0.4% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LAX 14:10 → HOU 19:35WN 3225 2h 55m Houston HOU 22:30 → OKC 00:03 +1WN 4896 7h 53m 99% 66%
DeltaDetails → LAX 13:15 → ATL 20:56DL 395 1h 48m Atlanta ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423 8h 37m 90% 60%
AmericanDetails → LAX 11:59 → DFW 16:40AA 2890 1h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:34 → OKC 19:39AA 3727 · flown by Envoy 5h 40m 83% 60%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 17:00 → LAS 18:15WN 1571 2h 50m Las Vegas LAS 21:05 → OKC 01:35 +1WN 4160 6h 35m 99% 59%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758 2h 42m Denver DEN 20:42 → OKC 23:29UA 4727 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 93% 58%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360 1h 15m Denver DEN 17:31 → OKC 20:11UA 1184 5h 25m 86% 58%
UnitedDetails → LAX 13:10 → IAH 18:39UA 1591 1h 33m Houston IAH 20:12 → OKC 21:47UA 2304 6h 37m 91% 57%
SouthwestDetails → LAX 14:55 → DAL 20:00WN 4306 1h 55m Dallas DAL 21:55 → OKC 23:09WN 4929 6h 14m 100% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 11:59 → DFW 16:40AA 2890 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:40 → OKC 18:45AA 3729 · flown by Envoy 4h 46m 54% 38%
AmericanDetails → LAX 15:00 → DFW 20:21AA 2994 1h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → OKC 22:33AA 1458 5h 33m 58% 30%
AmericanDetails → LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10AA 2032 46m Phoenix PHX 18:56 → OKC 23:15AA 6320 · flown by SkyWest 4h 36m 37% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON