Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:45 am at Los Angeles)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Las Vegas, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Omaha on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 58% of the time.

Nonstops today


AA 6506 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 07:15	OMA 12:42	17%	4%	0.2%	91%
AA 6224 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:32	OMA 23:57	23%	9%	0.7%	74%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LAX 05:05 → PHX 06:30WN 116	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 07:45 → OMA 12:26WN 3245	5h 21m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:30 → OMA 16:51DL 3896 · flown by SkyWest	7h 36m	98%	88%
American Details →	LAX 08:00 → ORD 14:27AA 1598	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 17:30 → OMA 19:18AA 3738 · flown by Envoy	9h 18m	98%	88%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:20 → LAS 06:35WN 2403	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 07:45 → OMA 12:25WN 2294	5h 05m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	1h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → OMA 12:56DL 4114 · flown by SkyWest	5h 21m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	3h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 15:29 → OMA 16:49DL 3948 · flown by SkyWest	8h 34m	100%	85%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 49m Denver	DEN 10:11 → OMA 12:55UA 1633	5h 55m	100%	84%
Southwest Details →	LAX 13:30 → STL 19:10WN 2400	2h 43m St Louis	STL 21:53 → OMA 23:29WN 492	7h 59m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	LAX 14:55 → DEN 18:15WN 2392	50m Denver	DEN 19:05 → OMA 21:42WN 4423	4h 47m	58%	41%
American Details →	LAX 10:30 → DFW 15:53AA 3218	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:46 → OMA 18:42AA 2270	6h 12m	66%	38%
American Details →	LAX 12:15 → DFW 17:34AA 1230	59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:33 → OMA 20:29AA 2167	6h 14m	61%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON