tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 580 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 580 LAX 05:10 → ORD 11:27 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest F9 2446 LAX 23:59 → ORD 06:17 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time
Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 580 United Flight history → LAX 05:10 ORD 11:27 7% 2% 0.6% 98%
UA 1941 United Flight history → LAX 07:00 ORD 13:14 10% 3% 0.6% 91%
UA 729 United Flight history → LAX 00:13 ORD 06:32 11% 4% 0.6% 83%
AA 383 American Flight history → LAX 06:05 ORD 12:32 11% 4% 1.3% 91%
UA 1946 United Flight history → LAX 08:15 ORD 14:35 12% 4% 0.6% 85%
DL 967 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:40 ORD 13:46 15% 3% 0.5% 85%
UA 1962 United Flight history → LAX 23:30 ORD 05:46 15% 5% 0.6% 88%
UA 353 United Flight history → LAX 22:35 ORD 04:51 15% 6% 0.6% 90%
AA 2919 American Flight history → LAX 00:40 ORD 07:06 15% 5% 1.3% 87%
AA 1598 American Flight history → LAX 08:00 ORD 14:27 16% 5% 1.3% 90%
UA 1754 United Flight history → LAX 18:58 ORD 01:15 17% 8% 0.6% 83%
AA 2608 American Flight history → LAX 09:30 ORD 15:59 18% 6% 1.0% 76%
AA 2998 American Flight history → LAX 09:39 ORD 15:48 18% 6% 1.0% 71%
UA 212 United Flight history → LAX 17:00 ORD 23:16 19% 9% 0.6% 87%
DL 2368 Delta Flight history → LAX 11:24 ORD 17:35 19% 6% 0.5% 66%
UA 2113 United Flight history → LAX 10:45 ORD 17:04 22% 8% 0.6% 78%
DL 1634 Delta Flight history → LAX 17:15 ORD 23:18 22% 8% 0.5% 67%
UA 457 United Flight history → LAX 12:50 ORD 19:05 23% 9% 0.6% 69%
AA 2718 American Flight history → LAX 16:25 ORD 23:00 23% 10% 1.0% 66%
AA 1628 American Flight history → LAX 10:21 ORD 16:50 24% 9% 1.0% 52%
AA 1009 American Flight history → LAX 22:45 ORD 05:09 25% 8% 1.3% 76%
AA 1050 American Flight history → LAX 11:40 ORD 18:12 26% 9% 1.2% 61%
UA 2487 United Flight history → LAX 14:26 ORD 20:40 28% 9% 0.6% 69%
AA 1433 American Flight history → LAX 17:50 ORD 00:07 28% 9% 1.2% 62%
AA 3134 American Flight history → LAX 13:25 ORD 20:08 28% 10% 1.0% 58%
F9 2446 Frontier Flight history → LAX 23:59 ORD 06:17 39% 14% 1.3% 61%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
DeltaDetails → LAX 00:30 → MSP 06:07DL 2084 53m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → ORD 08:30DL 1544 6h 00m 88% 79%
UnitedDetails → LAX 07:00 → DEN 10:29UA 703 46m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 5h 55m 84% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON