tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 08:05, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching West Palm Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach West Palm Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (West Palm Beach is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 08:05 → ATL 15:41DL 782 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → PBI 20:51DL 1058 9h 46m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → LAX 06:00 → ATL 13:35DL 390 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → PBI 18:36DL 959 9h 36m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → LAX 12:00 → ATL 19:39DL 446 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → PBI 00:51 +1DL 1065 9h 51m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → LAX 09:50 → ATL 16:50DL 327 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 20:30 → PBI 22:22DL 1606 9h 32m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654 1h 13m Houston IAH 12:25 → PBI 15:56UA 1345 7h 11m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:31 → DFW 05:41AA 971 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:30 → PBI 13:21AA 2276 9h 50m 100% 75%
UnitedDetails → LAX 08:20 → EWR 16:45UA 2096 3h 34m Newark EWR 20:19 → PBI 23:28UA 2650 12h 08m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → LAX 00:40 → ORD 07:06AA 2919 1h 02m Chicago ORD 08:08 → PBI 12:12AA 2269 8h 32m 85% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LAX 13:58 → CLT 21:55AA 1988 1h 01m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → PBI 00:51 +1AA 1764 7h 53m 73% 49%
UnitedDetails → LAX 11:15 → EWR 19:30UA 1981 49m Newark EWR 20:19 → PBI 23:28UA 2650 9h 13m 63% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON