Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 668 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–20%.

Safest bet that day AS 668 LAX 07:00 → PDX 09:21 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2457 LAX 20:00 → PDX 22:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 668 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:00	PDX 09:21	10%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 2975 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:05	PDX 09:23	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
AS 1315 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 14:27	PDX 16:47	13%	5%	0.6%	92%
AS 670 Alaska	LAX 08:11	PDX 10:40	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1355 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:23	PDX 13:44	14%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 2766 Delta Flight history →	LAX 10:00	PDX 12:20	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 2551 Delta Flight history →	LAX 14:19	PDX 16:34	15%	5%	0.6%	86%
AS 1397 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 18:27	PDX 20:48	16%	6%	0.6%	89%
AS 207 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 21:35	PDX 23:56	16%	4%	0.6%	88%
AA 6189 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:10	PDX 16:38	18%	7%	0.5%	80%
F9 4499 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 09:15	PDX 11:35	18%	5%	1.2%	95%worse than usual
DL 2459 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:01	PDX 19:17	18%	6%	0.6%	86%
DL 2457 Delta Flight history →	LAX 20:00	PDX 22:13	20%	5%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON