Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2010 at 00:08 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2010 LAX 00:08 → PHL 08:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AA 3319 LAX 12:18 → PHL 20:40 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2010 American Flight history →	LAX 00:08	PHL 08:18	10%	4%	0.4%	72%
AA 1451 American Flight history →	LAX 06:05	PHL 14:21	12%	5%	2.1%	87%
AA 2222 American	LAX 06:26	PHL 14:46	13%	6%	2.1%	no record
AA 1151 American Flight history →	LAX 07:02	PHL 15:24	17%	7%	2.1%	86%
AA 2758 American Flight history →	LAX 23:42	PHL 07:57	19%	6%	1.6%	86%
AA 2066 American	LAX 08:11	PHL 16:26	21%	8%	1.9%	no record
AA 1528 American Flight history →	LAX 08:05	PHL 16:28	22%	7%	2.1%	88%
AA 3276 American Flight history →	LAX 22:46	PHL 07:00	25%	7%	1.3%	63%
AA 513 American Flight history →	LAX 15:20	PHL 23:39	25%	11%	1.2%	67%
AA 1407 American	LAX 10:36	PHL 18:53	27%	11%	1.6%	no record
AA 3164 American Flight history →	LAX 10:16	PHL 18:41	30%	11%	1.3%	75%
AA 3319 American Flight history →	LAX 12:18	PHL 20:40	30%	14%	1.3%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:00 → MSP 05:26DL 430	1h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → PHL 10:44DL 2688	7h 44m	98%	93%
United Details →	LAX 12:43 → IAD 20:48UA 1635	1h 22m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → PHL 23:20UA 3502 · flown by Republic	7h 37m	92%	84%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	1h 13m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 12m	99%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON