Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 31 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3591 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3591 LAX 05:30 → PHX 07:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2032 LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3591 Southwest	LAX 05:30	PHX 07:00	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 116 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 05:05	PHX 06:30	5%	1%	0.5%	96%
AA 2027 American Flight history →	LAX 06:19	PHX 07:49	11%	4%	0.7%	94%
AA 2915 American	LAX 06:16	PHX 07:51	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2419 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 08:55	PHX 10:25	14%	2%	0.5%	64%
OO 5419 SkyWest	LAX 08:26	PHX 10:04	14%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3385 Southwest	LAX 08:07	PHX 09:37	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 4119 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:21	PHX 09:56	15%	6%	0.6%	85%
UA 659 United Flight history →	LAX 08:37	PHX 10:06	15%	5%	0.6%	94%
OO 5425 SkyWest	LAX 13:31	PHX 15:20	16%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 5457 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:22	PHX 17:59	16%	10%	0.6%	99%worse than usual
UA 5458 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:22	PHX 22:59	16%	8%	0.6%	93%
DL 3951 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:01	PHX 11:34	16%	8%	0.6%	86%
DL 3894 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:46	PHX 15:21	16%	9%	0.6%	88%
DL 3827 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:35	PHX 00:06	16%	9%	0.7%	89%
UA 5548 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 13:05	PHX 14:42	17%	9%	0.6%	89%
DL 4077 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:41	PHX 19:14	18%	10%	0.6%	88%
AA 3076 American	LAX 09:56	PHX 11:26	18%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 1749 Southwest	LAX 10:12	PHX 11:42	20%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 1668 American Flight history →	LAX 10:00	PHX 11:28	20%	8%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
WN 1672 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 22:25	PHX 23:55	25%	8%	0.5%	62%
AA 2137 American	LAX 13:07	PHX 14:40	25%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2421 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 10:50	PHX 12:15	25%	3%	0.5%	68%
WN 2628 Southwest	LAX 14:20	PHX 15:50	29%	6%	0.5%	no record
AA 2293 American Flight history →	LAX 20:41	PHX 22:09	30%	9%	0.7%	74%
AA 1994 American Flight history →	LAX 13:10	PHX 14:40	30%	11%	0.6%	65%
AA 1362 American Flight history →	LAX 19:32	PHX 21:02	30%	10%	0.7%	68%
WN 4229 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 19:35	PHX 21:00	30%	9%	0.5%	52%
WN 193 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 16:55	PHX 18:25	31%	9%	0.5%	31%
F9 1062 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 13:56	PHX 15:31	31%	16%	0.7%	78%
AA 2032 American Flight history →	LAX 16:39	PHX 18:10	33%	13%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON