Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2039 LAX 09:00 → PIT 16:51 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2754 LAX 09:06 → PIT 16:52 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2039 United Flight history →	LAX 09:00	PIT 16:51	11%	3%	0.1%	92%
AA 2301 American Flight history →	LAX 09:27	PIT 17:28	16%	6%	0.1%	75%
AA 2754 American	LAX 09:06	PIT 16:52	17%	6%	0.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	LAX 05:55 → DEN 09:20WN 2943	1h 16m Denver	DEN 10:36 → PIT 15:38WN 1739	6h 43m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	LAX 05:20 → LAS 06:35WN 2403	1h 10m Las Vegas	LAS 07:45 → PIT 14:52WN 2004	6h 32m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	LAX 06:15 → MSP 11:52DL 792	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 13:07 → PIT 16:23DL 4971 · flown by Endeavor	7h 08m	97%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON