tailodds FORECAST
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Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:49 am at Los Angeles)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AS 3303 at 19:45, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3303 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 19:45 PSC 22:17 31% 9% 0.6% 87%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pasco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311 3h 17m Salt Lake City SLC 23:15 → PSC 23:54DL 1712 6h 49m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360 3h 02m Denver DEN 19:18 → PSC 20:53UA 1737 8h 07m 97% 70%
UnitedDetails → LAX 18:45 → SFO 20:10UA 2681 2h 30m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → PSC 00:50 +1UA 6044 · flown by SkyWest 6h 05m 94% 68%
AmericanDetails → LAX 16:39 → PHX 18:10AA 2032 2h 24m Phoenix PHX 20:34 → PSC 23:19AA 6292 · flown by SkyWest 6h 40m 90% 67%
DeltaDetails → LAX 17:45 → SEA 20:27DL 2640 2h 18m Seattle SEA 22:45 → PSC 23:53DL 4017 · flown by SkyWest 6h 08m 93% 65%
UnitedDetails → LAX 14:30 → DEN 18:00UA 2758 1h 24m Denver DEN 19:24 → PSC 20:52UA 1913 6h 22m 80% 56%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LAX 20:10 → SFO 21:38UA 1195 1h 02m San Francisco SFO 22:40 → PSC 00:50 +1UA 6044 · flown by SkyWest 4h 40m 62% 45%
AlaskaDetails → LAX 18:27 → PDX 20:48AS 1397 1h 02m Portland PDX 21:50 → PSC 22:44AS 3066 · flown by SkyWest 4h 17m 61% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON