Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 24–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1129 LAX 18:54 → RDM 21:11 · 24% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3216 LAX 14:25 → RDM 16:36 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 1129 United	LAX 18:54	RDM 21:11	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
OO 3317 SkyWest	LAX 20:31	RDM 22:44	26%	10%	0.7%	no record
OO 3216 SkyWest	LAX 14:25	RDM 16:36	31%	11%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON