Today: DL 4099 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–25%.

Safest bet today DL 4099 LAX 08:20 → RNO 09:53 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2975 LAX 13:00 → RNO 14:25 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4099 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:20	RNO 09:53	10%	4%	0.2%	96%
UA 5410 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:17	RNO 10:56	11%	5%	0.2%	94%
UA 5722 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:12	RNO 17:46	15%	9%	0.6%	91%
DL 4126 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 16:50	RNO 18:21	16%	8%	0.6%	90%
UA 5411 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:55	RNO 20:38	17%	9%	0.7%	90%
DL 3902 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:58	RNO 14:25	17%	7%	0.2%	91%
DL 3929 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 21:59	RNO 23:28	18%	6%	0.7%	89%
UA 1544 United	LAX 13:02	RNO 14:31	21%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 2238 United Flight history →	LAX 21:10	RNO 22:38	22%	8%	0.5%	77%
WN 1161 Southwest	LAX 21:25	RNO 22:55	25%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 2975 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 13:00	RNO 14:25	26%	4%	0.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON