Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 4643 LAX 09:00 → SAN 10:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 4087 LAX 18:20 → SAN 19:17 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4643 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:00	SAN 10:08	16%	7%	0.7%	89%
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 08:50	SAN 09:52	20%	8%	0.7%	79%
DL 3746 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:45	SAN 23:42	21%	7%	0.8%	87%
UA 594 United Flight history →	LAX 22:56	SAN 23:54	21%	7%	0.6%	80%
UA 5415 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:50	SAN 19:51	22%	9%	0.8%	86%
UA 1068 United	LAX 10:30	SAN 11:24	23%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 4001 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:11	SAN 15:08	23%	9%	0.7%	82%
DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:20	SAN 19:17	25%	9%	0.8%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON