Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4695 at 07:35, 15%.

Safest bet today WN 4695 LAX 07:35 → SAT 12:32 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3511 LAX 14:35 → SAT 19:25 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4695 Southwest	LAX 07:35	SAT 12:32	15%	3%	0.1%	no record
AA 6307 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:26	SAT 14:34	20%	7%	0.2%	93%worse than usual
DL 2568 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:55	SAT 14:53	26%	4%	0.1%	89%worse than usual
AA 6497 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 11:17	SAT 16:23	26%	7%	0.1%	84%worse than usual
AA 4962 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:22	SAT 23:29	30%	7%	0.2%	84%worse than usual
DL 2686 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:59	SAT 23:54	33%	7%	0.1%	82%worse than usual
WN 3511 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 14:35	SAT 19:25	40%	6%	0.1%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON