Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 4796 LAX 22:44 → SBA 23:44 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest OO 545 LAX 21:03 → SBA 21:57 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 4796 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 22:44	SBA 23:44	19%	6%	0.9%	88%
UA 5893 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:47	SBA 13:41	21%	7%	0.5%	84%
OO 545 SkyWest	LAX 21:03	SBA 21:57	23%	9%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON