tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 325 at 11:43 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 325 LAX 11:43 → SEA 14:36 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 495 LAX 08:04 → SEA 10:39 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time
Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 325 United Flight history → LAX 11:43 SEA 14:36 15% 6% 0.5% 89%
DL 1045 Delta Flight history → LAX 12:09 SEA 14:55 17% 5% 0.6% 89%
DL 1714 Delta Flight history → LAX 09:45 SEA 12:30 18% 4% 0.6% 93%worse than usual
DL 2606 Delta Flight history → LAX 14:00 SEA 16:40 18% 6% 0.6% 84%
DL 2980 Delta Flight history → LAX 07:15 SEA 10:00 19% 4% 0.6% 92%worse than usual
DL 2616 Delta Flight history → LAX 21:15 SEA 00:03 19% 5% 0.6% 77%
AS 1365 Alaska Flight history → LAX 06:00 SEA 08:47 21% 3% 0.7% 86%
DL 1551 Delta Flight history → LAX 19:17 SEA 22:05 22% 6% 0.6% 81%
UA 684 United Flight history → LAX 19:07 SEA 22:00 22% 9% 0.5% 84%
DL 304 Delta LAX 09:34 SEA 12:04 22% 6% 0.6% no record
F9 1177 Frontier Flight history → LAX 15:04 SEA 17:51 23% 10% 1.0% 82%
AS 585 Alaska Flight history → LAX 13:59 SEA 16:45 24% 6% 0.6% 87%worse than usual
DL 2640 Delta Flight history → LAX 17:45 SEA 20:27 24% 7% 0.6% 83%
AS 1375 Alaska Flight history → LAX 16:25 SEA 19:11 25% 9% 0.6% 68%
AS 614 Alaska Flight history → LAX 20:09 SEA 22:58 25% 6% 0.6% 88%worse than usual
AS 1368 Alaska Flight history → LAX 19:09 SEA 21:58 25% 7% 0.6% 71%
AS 748 Alaska Flight history → LAX 07:00 SEA 09:49 26% 4% 0.6% 88%worse than usual
AA 6324 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 10:50 SEA 13:48 26% 8% 0.5% 80%
AS 1305 Alaska Flight history → LAX 12:47 SEA 15:33 26% 6% 0.6% 76%
OO 5736 SkyWest LAX 08:48 SEA 11:52 27% 9% 0.6% no record
AS 798 Alaska Flight history → LAX 10:00 SEA 12:48 27% 6% 0.6% 88%worse than usual
AS 1301 Alaska Flight history → LAX 18:09 SEA 20:56 28% 9% 0.6% 87%worse than usual
AS 482 Alaska Flight history → LAX 09:00 SEA 11:52 30% 5% 0.6% 85%worse than usual
AA 4920 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → LAX 18:48 SEA 21:45 30% 9% 0.6% 67%
OO 6476 SkyWest LAX 09:57 SEA 12:37 33% 9% 0.6% no record
AS 495 Alaska Flight history → LAX 08:04 SEA 10:39 39% 5% 0.6% 92%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON