Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Today: DL 2906 at 05:35 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet today DL 2906 LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 4130 LAX 18:23 → SLC 21:28 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2906 Delta Flight history →	LAX 05:35	SLC 08:30	3%	2%	0.1%	96%
DL 1318 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:15	SLC 10:10	9%	3%	0.1%	92%
OO 4629 SkyWest	LAX 09:39	SLC 12:43	11%	5%	0.1%	no record
WN 1378 Southwest	LAX 08:25	SLC 11:17	13%	2%	0.1%	no record
DL 1434 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:55	SLC 12:45	13%	3%	0.1%	92%
DL 1194 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:41	SLC 14:30	14%	5%	0.7%	90%
DL 1647 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:10	SLC 16:03	15%	5%	0.7%	87%
UA 5371 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 12:55	SLC 15:48	16%	6%	0.6%	89%
DL 2311 Delta Flight history →	LAX 17:05	SLC 19:58	18%	6%	0.6%	78%
OO 555 SkyWest	LAX 16:34	SLC 19:30	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 1483 Delta Flight history →	LAX 19:15	SLC 22:04	20%	6%	0.7%	86%
WN 4322 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 10:15	SLC 13:00	24%	4%	0.1%	65%
F9 1268 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 10:10	SLC 13:02	24%	7%	0.7%	81%
DL 8785 Delta	LAX 22:01	SLC 00:51	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 5744 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 20:19	SLC 23:11	25%	8%	0.6%	88%worse than usual
F9 4130 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 18:23	SLC 21:28	26%	13%	0.8%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON