Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 31–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5000 LAX 18:13 → STL 23:59 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest WN 2400 LAX 13:30 → STL 19:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Against a calm day 33% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 5000 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 18:13	STL 23:59	31%	8%	0.7%	77%
WN 426 Southwest	LAX 17:55	STL 23:36	34%	9%	0.5%	no record
WN 2400 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 13:30	STL 19:10	35%	5%	0.1%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON