Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Today: AS 3114 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet today AS 3114 LAX 09:00 → STS 10:45 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest OO 3247 LAX 16:03 → STS 17:40 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3114 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:00	STS 10:45	16%	6%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
AS 3476 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:00	STS 18:43	22%	13%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
AS 3076 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:09	STS 15:55	22%	9%	0.9%	87%
OO 3060 SkyWest	LAX 09:32	STS 11:08	23%	7%	0.6%	no record
OO 3247 SkyWest	LAX 16:03	STS 17:40	26%	13%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON