Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:08 am at Los Angeles)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 5980 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 10:02	SUN 13:16	13%	4%	0.2%	100%worse than usual
UA 5379 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 11:37	SUN 15:01	18%	6%	0.2%	80%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h ahead of Los Angeles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LAX 05:35 → SLC 08:30DL 2906	2h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → SUN 12:25DL 3973 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	LAX 07:15 → SLC 10:10DL 1318	3h 15m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	98%	89%
United Details →	LAX 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1010	3h 22m Denver	DEN 11:44 → SUN 13:47UA 5554 · flown by SkyWest	7h 47m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	LAX 17:05 → SLC 19:58DL 2311	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SUN 22:07DL 3985 · flown by SkyWest	4h 02m	87%	79%
United Details →	LAX 13:28 → SFO 15:05UA 469	3h 50m San Francisco	SFO 18:55 → SUN 21:51UA 5986 · flown by SkyWest	7h 23m	98%	73%
United Details →	LAX 12:46 → DEN 16:16UA 360	3h 09m Denver	DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest	7h 40m	97%	69%
Alaska Details →	LAX 11:32 → SEA 14:13AS 798	2h 12m Seattle	SEA 16:25 → SUN 19:01AS 2322 · flown by Horizon	6h 29m	91%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON