Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:42 pm at Los Angeles); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 37%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3776 at 14:10, 33%.

Safest bet today DL 3776 LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest WN 2316 LAX 20:55 → TUS 22:35 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Weather 37% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 3776 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 14:10	TUS 15:50	33%	11%	0.2%	81%worse than usual
WN 1599 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 13:05	TUS 14:35	33%	7%	0.1%	38%
AA 6372 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 15:39	TUS 17:12	35%	11%	0.2%	83%worse than usual
OO 6292 SkyWest	LAX 16:26	TUS 18:07	35%	10%	0.2%	no record
DL 3846 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:21	TUS 20:59	35%	9%	0.2%	82%worse than usual
OO 283 SkyWest	LAX 20:21	TUS 22:04	37%	10%	0.3%	no record
AA 6315 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 19:25	TUS 21:02	38%	11%	0.2%	76%worse than usual
WN 951 Southwest Flight history →	LAX 16:50	TUS 18:20	38%	8%	0.1%	67%
WN 2316 Southwest	LAX 20:55	TUS 22:35	46%	11%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON