Today: AA 6381 at 09:36 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–25%.

Safest bet today AA 6381 LAX 09:36 → XNA 15:06 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 6210 LAX 18:31 → XNA 23:54 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6381 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 09:36	XNA 15:06	14%	5%	0.2%	93%
OO 6299 SkyWest	LAX 11:40	XNA 17:06	21%	5%	0.2%	no record
AA 6187 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	LAX 17:49	XNA 23:17	24%	6%	0.2%	89%worse than usual
OO 6210 SkyWest	LAX 18:31	XNA 23:54	25%	6%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON