Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:25 pm at New York); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 5493 at 22:18, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 5493 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 22:18	ALB 23:22	21%	8%	0.6%	65%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albany on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	2h 06m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → ALB 23:21DL 2660	6h 21m	90%	68%
American Details →	LGA 14:31 → CLT 16:53AA 2033	3h 16m Charlotte	CLT 20:09 → ALB 22:15AA 589	7h 44m	95%	68%
Southwest Details →	LGA 15:25 → MDW 17:05WN 1095	1h 45m Chicago	MDW 18:50 → ALB 21:49WN 4489	6h 24m	90%	65%
American Details →	LGA 17:29 → ORD 19:43AA 752	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 21:03 → ALB 00:17 +1AA 3463 · flown by Envoy	6h 48m	76%	63%
American Details →	LGA 13:28 → DCA 14:56AA 4590 · flown by Republic	2h 22m Washington	DCA 17:18 → ALB 18:59AA 5501 · flown by PSA	5h 31m	99%	63%
American Details →	LGA 17:09 → DCA 18:41AA 4736 · flown by Republic	3h 34m Washington	DCA 22:15 → ALB 23:42AA 5065 · flown by PSA	6h 33m	100%	62%
United Details →	LGA 14:28 → ORD 16:14UA 2199	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 18:37 → ALB 21:37UA 1382	7h 09m	95%	62%
American Details →	LGA 17:00 → CLT 19:18AA 1320	1h 22m Charlotte	CLT 20:40 → ALB 22:39AA 1858	5h 39m	82%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	LGA 17:00 → CLT 19:18AA 1320	51m Charlotte	CLT 20:09 → ALB 22:15AA 589	5h 15m	64%	45%
JetBlue Details →	LGA 16:29 → FLL 19:43B6 1171	1h 16m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:59 → ALB 00:07 +1B6 87	7h 38m	62%	42%
JetBlue Details →	LGA 15:40 → FLL 18:53B6 471	1h 01m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 19:54 → ALB 23:10B6 88	7h 30m	56%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON