tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 30 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4377 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 4377 LGA 06:00 → BOS 07:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 4374 LGA 17:59 → BOS 19:28 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time
Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 4377 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 06:00 BOS 07:20 3% 2% 1.2% 92%
DL 5852 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 06:00 BOS 07:15 4% 2% 1.2% 95%
YX 4394 Republic LGA 06:09 BOS 07:20 5% 2% 1.2% no record
DL 5793 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 06:59 BOS 08:23 5% 2% 1.2% 96%
YX 5696 Republic LGA 06:11 BOS 07:22 6% 2% 1.3% no record
DL 5759 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 08:00 BOS 09:19 6% 2% 1.2% 88%
AA 4373 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 08:59 BOS 10:19 8% 2% 0.9% 87%
AA 4367 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 10:30 BOS 11:53 9% 3% 0.9% 89%
DL 5728 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 10:00 BOS 11:23 9% 3% 0.9% 86%
YX 5591 Republic LGA 09:12 BOS 10:23 9% 3% 0.9% no record
DL 5745 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 11:00 BOS 12:22 12% 3% 0.9% 81%
DL 5761 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 12:00 BOS 13:21 14% 5% 0.9% 80%
AA 4375 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 12:09 BOS 13:33 15% 5% 0.9% 76%
AA 3045 American LGA 07:32 BOS 08:38 15% 3% 2.3% no record
AA 1050 American LGA 10:32 BOS 11:40 19% 5% 3.0% no record
YX 4402 Republic LGA 13:33 BOS 14:58 20% 8% 0.9% no record
DL 5758 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 13:00 BOS 14:23 22% 7% 0.9% 80%
AA 1571 American LGA 11:47 BOS 12:55 23% 6% 2.1% no record
DL 5751 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 21:00 BOS 22:33 25% 12% 1.2% 68%
DL 5850 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 20:00 BOS 21:39 25% 14% 1.2% 60%
DL 5739 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 14:00 BOS 15:29 26% 10% 1.2% 80%
AA 4768 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 21:10 BOS 22:33 26% 13% 1.2% 63%
DL 2801 Delta Flight history → LGA 21:59 BOS 23:31 27% 14% 0.7% 47%
DL 5727 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 15:00 BOS 16:33 28% 14% 1.0% 63%
AA 4370 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 15:17 BOS 16:42 28% 13% 1.2% 58%
DL 5819 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 16:00 BOS 17:37 30% 17% 1.2% 58%
DL 5738 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 18:00 BOS 19:40 31% 17% 1.2% 65%
DL 5746 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 18:59 BOS 20:45 32% 17% 1.2% 57%
DL 5725 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 17:00 BOS 18:40 33% 16% 1.2% 69%
AA 4374 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 17:59 BOS 19:28 35% 16% 1.2% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON