tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Midway, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Baltimore on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 31% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2464 1h 35m Chicago MDW 08:55 → BWI 11:45WN 1355 5h 45m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → BOS 07:15DL 5852 · flown by Republic 3h 55m Boston BOS 11:10 → BWI 12:53DL 5668 · flown by Republic 6h 53m 100% 91%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:30 → MCI 08:30WN 576 2h 15m Kansas City MCI 10:45 → BWI 14:18WN 4670 7h 48m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 08:55 → STL 10:45WN 523 2h 16m St Louis STL 13:01 → BWI 16:14WN 4047 7h 19m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → LGA 09:25 → DTW 11:24DL 1078 3h 41m Detroit DTW 15:05 → BWI 16:41DL 2480 7h 16m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 07:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2465 3h 55m Chicago MDW 12:45 → BWI 15:43WN 2848 8h 18m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822 1h 51m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 6h 36m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 7h 53m 100% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → LGA 18:19 → ORD 19:58AA 3163 1h 12m Chicago ORD 21:10 → BWI 00:01 +1AA 3222 5h 42m 56% 40%
AmericanDetails → LGA 16:55 → MIA 20:22AA 605 50m Miami MIA 21:12 → BWI 23:52AA 3216 6h 57m 43% 30%
UnitedDetails → LGA 17:25 → ORD 19:12UA 602 55m Chicago ORD 20:07 → BWI 23:13UA 220 5h 48m 31% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON