tailodds FORECAST
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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Bozeman on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 10:56 → BZN 12:24DL 2946 8h 24m 99% 91%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:10 → ORD 07:49UA 2389 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 34m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822 3h 45m Chicago ORD 12:45 → BZN 15:13UA 623 9h 52m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:40 → DEN 09:55UA 2154 3h 49m Denver DEN 13:44 → BZN 15:33UA 513 9h 53m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 07:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2465 2h 10m Chicago MDW 11:00 → BZN 13:10WN 1139 7h 45m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550 2h 46m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 9h 11m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:55 → DEN 09:05WN 2454 3h 25m Denver DEN 12:30 → BZN 14:10WN 4219 9h 15m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → LGA 10:00 → DEN 12:20UA 716 2h 55m Denver DEN 15:15 → BZN 17:10UA 6030 · flown by SkyWest 9h 10m 95% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → LGA 17:25 → ORD 19:12UA 602 1h 03m Chicago ORD 20:15 → BZN 22:43UA 533 7h 18m 67% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON