Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4387 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 4387 LGA 08:16 → CLE 10:04 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 4713 LGA 16:40 → CLE 18:34 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4387 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:16	CLE 10:04	8%	2%	0.6%	87%
YX 4514 Republic	LGA 08:33	CLE 10:20	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 5773 Republic	LGA 10:47	CLE 12:35	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4388 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:40	CLE 13:29	15%	3%	0.7%	82%
YX 4497 Republic	LGA 12:41	CLE 14:30	16%	3%	0.7%	no record
YX 5767 Republic	LGA 13:27	CLE 15:16	20%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 4722 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:29	CLE 22:23	24%	8%	0.7%	64%
YX 4378 Republic	LGA 15:28	CLE 17:16	30%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 4713 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 16:40	CLE 18:34	33%	8%	0.7%	53%
DL 5190 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 07:59	CLE 09:47	16%	7%	4.5%	84%
DL 5045 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:25	CLE 12:14	20%	10%	3.9%	80%
DL 5242 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:40	CLE 15:34	24%	9%	4.6%	76%
DL 4974 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 20:30	CLE 22:35	33%	17%	13.7%	67%
DL 5194 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:14	CLE 19:19	34%	17%	6.1%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON