Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3084 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–50%.

Safest bet that day AA 3084 LGA 06:00 → CLT 07:58 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3133 LGA 16:45 → CLT 19:17 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3084 American Flight history →	LGA 06:00	CLT 07:58	7%	3%	2.2%	96%
AA 3279 American Flight history →	LGA 06:52	CLT 08:54	9%	3%	2.1%	92%
YX 5719 Republic	LGA 09:33	CLT 11:32	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2043 American Flight history →	LGA 09:58	CLT 12:04	13%	5%	2.1%	81%
AA 1023 American Flight history →	LGA 07:55	CLT 10:01	14%	3%	1.8%	85%
AA 2927 American Flight history →	LGA 09:43	CLT 11:40	15%	5%	2.1%	93%
AA 1150 American Flight history →	LGA 12:10	CLT 14:14	16%	6%	2.1%	84%
AA 773 American	LGA 12:15	CLT 14:08	18%	6%	2.7%	no record
DL 5818 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:10	CLT 21:46	20%	6%	0.8%	63%
DL 5828 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:06	CLT 16:23	22%	6%	0.7%	72%
AA 2033 American Flight history →	LGA 14:31	CLT 16:53	25%	8%	2.0%	64%
AA 2268 American	LGA 14:56	CLT 16:47	28%	7%	2.7%	no record
AA 1942 American Flight history →	LGA 18:15	CLT 20:33	34%	10%	2.1%	67%
AA 1320 American Flight history →	LGA 17:00	CLT 19:18	35%	10%	2.1%	62%
F9 3133 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 16:45	CLT 19:17	50%	22%	1.0%	60%
DL 5068 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 06:51	CLT 08:56	12%	4%	8.5%	88%
DL 5046 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:50	CLT 13:57	20%	8%	7.0%	80%
DL 5051 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 09:00	CLT 11:10	21%	6%	6.0%	79%
DL 5047 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 17:06	CLT 19:32	32%	17%	9.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON