Today: AA 4684 at 14:06 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet today AA 4684 LGA 14:06 → CMH 16:07 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 4680 LGA 19:53 → CMH 21:53 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4684 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:06	CMH 16:07	14%	3%	0.2%	76%
DL 5675 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:25	CMH 16:22	14%	3%	0.2%	82%
DL 5681 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:55	CMH 22:03	24%	4%	0.4%	71%
DL 5671 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:30	CMH 19:42	25%	4%	0.4%	75%
AA 4462 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:29	CMH 19:38	26%	4%	0.4%	77%
AA 4680 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:53	CMH 21:53	26%	4%	0.4%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON