Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2341 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 2341 LGA 06:05 → DAL 08:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 4650 LGA 20:00 → DAL 22:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2341 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 06:05	DAL 08:35	5%	1%	0.9%	94%
WN 2528 Southwest	LGA 07:27	DAL 10:14	7%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 4187 Southwest	LGA 10:27	DAL 13:17	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2451 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 09:35	DAL 12:15	12%	3%	0.7%	77%
WN 4570 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 12:35	DAL 15:10	16%	4%	0.7%	75%
WN 4401 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 16:30	DAL 19:35	23%	11%	0.7%	52%
WN 4650 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 20:00	DAL 22:50	28%	13%	0.8%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON