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Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4487 at 05:58, 8%.

Safest bet that day AA 4487 LGA 05:58 → DCA 07:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 2142 LGA 14:43 → DCA 16:08 · 42% chance 15+ min late
Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 4487 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 05:58 DCA 07:29 8% 2% 0.5% 85%
AA 4612 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 06:00 DCA 07:20 9% 3% 0.5% 88%
DL 5770 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 06:05 DCA 07:23 9% 3% 0.5% 89%
AA 4393 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 09:03 DCA 10:32 12% 3% 0.8% 84%
AA 4754 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 09:16 DCA 10:47 13% 3% 0.8% 61%
AA 4491 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 07:43 DCA 09:13 13% 3% 0.9% 83%
AA 4456 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 08:19 DCA 09:49 14% 3% 0.9% 36%
AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 10:47 DCA 12:17 15% 3% 0.7% 85%
DL 5742 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 08:50 DCA 10:15 15% 4% 0.9% 83%
YX 4667 Republic LGA 10:47 DCA 12:18 19% 4% 0.8% no record
DL 5749 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 11:20 DCA 12:42 22% 4% 0.8% 78%
AA 4590 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 13:28 DCA 14:56 26% 6% 0.8% 43%
AA 4773 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 13:42 DCA 15:18 26% 6% 0.8% 76%
AA 4719 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 19:50 DCA 21:26 34% 10% 0.9% 64%
DL 1825 Delta Flight history → LGA 21:20 DCA 22:58 35% 13% 0.7% 47%
DL 5709 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 14:40 DCA 16:19 35% 9% 0.8% 61%
AA 4685 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 15:09 DCA 16:46 35% 8% 0.9% 52%
DL 5724 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 19:15 DCA 20:59 35% 10% 0.9% 50%
DL 5717 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 17:15 DCA 18:59 38% 11% 0.9% 62%
AA 4736 American flown by Republic Flight history → LGA 17:09 DCA 18:40 39% 9% 0.9% 74%worse than usual
AA 2142 American LGA 14:43 DCA 16:08 42% 10% 2.1% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON