Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2531 at 06:56 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 2531 LGA 06:56 → DEN 09:07 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2457 LGA 20:55 → DEN 23:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 36% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2531 Southwest	LGA 06:56	DEN 09:07	7%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2454 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 06:55	DEN 09:05	8%	1%	0.7%	80%
UA 644 United	LGA 07:33	DEN 09:59	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2154 United Flight history →	LGA 07:40	DEN 09:55	10%	3%	0.6%	67%
UA 2200 United Flight history →	LGA 12:29	DEN 14:43	10%	3%	0.6%	87%
UA 716 United Flight history →	LGA 10:00	DEN 12:20	10%	3%	0.6%	95%
DL 751 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:45	DEN 09:53	11%	2%	0.7%	84%
WN 1228 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 10:20	DEN 12:40	14%	3%	0.6%	65%
WN 4644 Southwest	LGA 10:31	DEN 12:35	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 716 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:55	DEN 16:14	20%	4%	0.6%	71%
UA 1729 United Flight history →	LGA 15:20	DEN 17:56	24%	8%	0.6%	63%
DL 710 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:50	DEN 21:35	26%	10%	0.8%	61%
UA 2046 United Flight history →	LGA 18:29	DEN 21:02	28%	10%	0.6%	71%
UA 2834 United Flight history →	LGA 16:59	DEN 19:35	30%	9%	0.6%	60%
WN 2455 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 14:00	DEN 16:20	30%	7%	0.7%	51%
WN 2456 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 16:25	DEN 19:05	31%	10%	0.7%	41%
WN 2457 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 20:55	DEN 23:30	33%	13%	0.8%	36%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510	1h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → DEN 10:03DL 2849	6h 03m	95%	87%
Southwest Details →	LGA 07:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2465	1h 05m Chicago	MDW 09:55 → DEN 11:30WN 2654	6h 05m	91%	81%
Southwest Details →	LGA 11:05 → BNA 12:30WN 470	55m Nashville	BNA 13:25 → DEN 15:10WN 503	6h 05m	79%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON