Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: AA 4339 at 11:31, 15%.

Safest bet today AA 4339 LGA 11:31 → DTW 13:44 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest AA 4598 LGA 20:44 → DTW 22:49 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4339 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 11:31	DTW 13:44	15%	3%	0.3%	73%
DL 1122 Delta Flight history →	LGA 12:55	DTW 14:51	18%	6%	0.2%	81%
AA 4630 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 14:45	DTW 16:50	22%	4%	0.2%	79%
AA 4414 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 17:13	DTW 19:23	26%	5%	0.1%	75%
DL 308 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:29	DTW 16:34	26%	7%	0.2%	79%
DL 999 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:00	DTW 19:39	31%	7%	0.2%	74%
DL 1014 Delta Flight history →	LGA 20:30	DTW 22:51	33%	9%	0.3%	70%
AA 4598 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:44	DTW 22:49	35%	8%	0.4%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON