Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:44 pm at New York)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31% (calm day: 20%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 17:00, 65% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	LGA 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 968	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	7h 37m	96%	65%
Delta Details →	LGA 15:00 → ATL 18:02DL 974	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → ECP 20:46DL 2494	6h 46m	92%	61%
American Details →	LGA 17:00 → CLT 19:18AA 1320	3h 51m Charlotte	CLT 23:09 → ECP 23:55AA 5633 · flown by PSA	7h 55m	97%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LGA 18:59 → ATL 22:24DL 970	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131	5h 38m	70%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON