Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: B6 1071 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–44%.

Safest bet that day B6 1071 LGA 06:00 → FLL 09:00 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 571 LGA 20:50 → FLL 23:59 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1071 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 06:00	FLL 09:00	6%	3%	0.8%	88%
DL 2465 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:20	FLL 10:22	8%	2%	0.7%	81%
AA 2490 American Flight history →	LGA 07:57	FLL 11:08	8%	3%	0.7%	80%
AA 2720 American	LGA 07:59	FLL 10:57	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 1181 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:55	FLL 13:54	12%	3%	0.6%	75%
B6 1471 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:30	FLL 10:35	12%	4%	0.7%	82%
B6 271 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 08:05	FLL 10:55	15%	5%	0.7%	80%
B6 1371 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 12:00	FLL 15:03	23%	9%	0.7%	61%
DL 2308 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:29	FLL 22:52	24%	12%	0.7%	66%
DL 2321 Delta Flight history →	LGA 16:30	FLL 19:56	25%	10%	0.6%	66%
AA 3196 American Flight history →	LGA 15:55	FLL 19:10	35%	10%	0.7%	50%
B6 1171 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 16:29	FLL 19:43	39%	16%	0.7%	62%
B6 471 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 15:40	FLL 18:53	41%	16%	0.7%	61%
B6 571 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 20:50	FLL 23:59	44%	22%	0.7%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON