Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 22–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 5104 LGA 15:08 → GRR 17:09 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest YX 5683 LGA 20:59 → GRR 23:17 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5104 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	LGA 15:08	GRR 17:09	22%	4%	0.2%	72%
DL 5659 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 21:00	GRR 23:24	26%	6%	0.2%	74%
YX 5683 Republic	LGA 20:59	GRR 23:17	29%	5%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON