Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 20%, against 9% on a calm day. Safest: UA 575 at 05:54, 8%.

Safest bet that day UA 575 LGA 05:54 → IAH 08:46 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1066 LGA 17:54 → IAH 20:52 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Weather 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 575 United	LGA 05:54	IAH 08:46	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2140 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:05	IAH 09:49	11%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	LGA 07:43	IAH 10:35	15%	2%	0.6%	93%
UA 1957 United Flight history →	LGA 07:29	IAH 10:13	16%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 2617 United Flight history →	LGA 10:15	IAH 13:06	16%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 344 United	LGA 12:47	IAH 15:50	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 692 United Flight history →	LGA 12:31	IAH 15:22	18%	4%	0.6%	78%
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	LGA 10:50	IAH 13:32	20%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 2930 Delta Flight history →	LGA 13:50	IAH 16:44	23%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	LGA 14:00	IAH 17:01	24%	6%	0.6%	64%
UA 1794 United Flight history →	LGA 15:38	IAH 18:46	26%	9%	0.6%	62%
UA 2189 United Flight history →	LGA 20:17	IAH 23:15	26%	10%	0.7%	69%
DL 2109 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:29	IAH 21:44	26%	14%	0.7%	65%
UA 1066 United Flight history →	LGA 17:54	IAH 20:52	31%	13%	0.6%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 09:00 → ATL 11:32DL 992	55m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	5h 33m	88%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON