Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today DL 5848 LGA 08:10 → JAX 10:43 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest YX 5633 LGA 08:21 → JAX 10:56 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 5848 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 08:10	JAX 10:43	17%	4%	1.0%	83%
YX 5633 Republic	LGA 08:21	JAX 10:56	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
DL 5461 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 12:39	JAX 15:19	35%	15%	2.1%	65%
DL 5471 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:29	JAX 18:18	39%	18%	9.5%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON