tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 2510 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 10h 23m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → LGA 07:55 → MSP 09:53DL 2473 3h 09m Minneapolis MSP 13:02 → LAX 14:54DL 1651 9h 59m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → LGA 08:00 → ATL 10:29DL 364 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 9h 12m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → LGA 06:05 → IAD 07:31UA 3656 · flown by Republic 2h 04m Dulles IAD 09:35 → LAX 12:11UA 657 9h 06m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822 1h 47m Chicago ORD 10:47 → LAX 13:16UA 2170 8h 55m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:10 → MSP 13:10DL 2409 2h 35m Minneapolis MSP 15:45 → LAX 17:35DL 2114 9h 25m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 06:59 → ATL 09:20DL 342 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326 9h 06m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → LGA 11:45 → IND 14:06DL 5642 · flown by Republic 3h 19m Indianapolis IND 17:25 → LAX 18:45DL 861 10h 00m 98% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → LGA 14:59 → MIA 18:30DL 2300 47m Miami MIA 19:17 → LAX 21:49DL 450 9h 50m 69% 56%
DeltaDetails → LGA 18:00 → BOS 19:40DL 5738 · flown by Republic 50m Boston BOS 20:30 → LAX 23:51DL 321 8h 51m 65% 47%
AmericanDetails → LGA 15:17 → BOS 16:42AA 4370 · flown by Republic 51m Boston BOS 17:33 → LAX 20:55AA 1578 8h 38m 69% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON