Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: DL 1164 at 07:00, 7%.

Safest bet that day DL 1164 LGA 07:00 → MCO 09:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 699 LGA 20:59 → MCO 23:52 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	7%	3%	2.1%	90%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:52	11%	4%	2.7%	89%
AA 3114 American Flight history →	LGA 07:30	MCO 10:22	13%	3%	2.1%	86%
AA 902 American	LGA 07:56	MCO 10:39	14%	3%	1.3%	no record
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	14%	5%	2.7%	80%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:55	19%	8%	1.2%	65%
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCO 18:52	33%	12%	2.7%	62%
DL 2540 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCO 23:03	35%	13%	2.7%	59%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:59	MCO 21:15	37%	13%	2.7%	68%
AA 2069 American Flight history →	LGA 14:57	MCO 17:52	39%	13%	3.2%	48%
B6 399 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 14:29	MCO 17:28	42%	21%	2.7%	61%
AA 1943 American Flight history →	LGA 14:53	MCO 17:34	42%	13%	3.2%	67%
F9 2615 Frontier Flight history →	LGA 20:29	MCO 23:32	51%	23%	5.1%	58%
B6 699 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 20:59	MCO 23:52	53%	23%	2.7%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON