Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: DL 5775 at 20:15, 36%.

Safest bet today DL 5775 LGA 20:15 → MEM 22:29 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest AA 4696 LGA 20:17 → MEM 22:11 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Weather 40% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


DL 5775 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:15	MEM 22:29	36%	9%	0.3%	67%
DL 5606 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 19:52	MEM 22:00	37%	9%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
AA 4696 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 20:17	MEM 22:11	46%	10%	0.3%	64%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON