Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2510 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 2510 LGA 06:00 → MSP 07:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 2015 LGA 18:05 → MSP 20:43 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2510 Delta Flight history →	LGA 06:00	MSP 07:53	5%	2%	0.6%	94%
DL 2473 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:55	MSP 09:53	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2409 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:10	MSP 13:10	12%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2349 Delta Flight history →	LGA 14:55	MSP 17:06	19%	6%	0.6%	75%
DL 2015 Delta Flight history →	LGA 18:05	MSP 20:43	22%	10%	0.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON