Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 34%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: DL 2411 at 07:15, 20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2411 LGA 07:15 → MSY 09:25 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 1256 LGA 15:55 → MSY 18:17 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Weather 34% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2411 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:15	MSY 09:25	20%	4%	0.9%	91%worse than usual
DL 2405 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:39	MSY 10:00	21%	5%	0.9%	68%
AA 2165 American Flight history →	LGA 14:29	MSY 16:56	37%	14%	1.3%	63%
WN 2470 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 16:45	MSY 19:20	39%	22%	1.2%	52%
AA 1675 American	LGA 14:53	MSY 17:21	41%	16%	1.8%	no record
WN 1256 Southwest	LGA 15:55	MSY 18:17	44%	16%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON