Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:29 am at New York)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 2194 at 08:05, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 2194 Delta Flight history →	LGA 08:05	MYR 10:01	19%	5%	0.8%	84%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	LGA 07:25 → BNA 08:50WN 2447	1h 30m Nashville	BNA 10:20 → MYR 12:57WN 664	5h 32m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2464	50m Chicago	MDW 08:10 → MYR 11:20WN 1695	5h 20m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	LGA 16:00 → ATL 19:07DL 969	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	7h 55m	98%	77%
United Details →	LGA 07:21 → ORD 09:00UA 2822	2h 00m Chicago	ORD 11:00 → MYR 14:19UA 1332	6h 58m	100%	75%
Southwest Details →	LGA 12:00 → STL 13:40WN 2473	2h 55m St Louis	STL 16:35 → MYR 19:30WN 3027	7h 30m	93%	74%
Delta Details →	LGA 06:05 → DTW 07:55DL 1231	50m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145	4h 34m	91%	74%
Southwest Details →	LGA 15:25 → MDW 17:05WN 1095	2h 40m Chicago	MDW 19:45 → MYR 22:50WN 36	7h 25m	94%	74%
Delta Details →	LGA 11:59 → ATL 14:31DL 990	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	7h 08m	96%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	LGA 10:59 → ATL 13:20DL 993	52m Atlanta	ATL 14:12 → MYR 15:27DL 2467	4h 28m	61%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON