tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Midway, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:00 → MDW 07:20WN 2464 2h 45m Chicago MDW 10:05 → OAK 12:38WN 4280 9h 38m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 07:25 → MDW 08:50WN 2465 1h 20m Chicago MDW 10:10 → OAK 12:40WN 3366 8h 15m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 06:55 → DEN 09:05WN 2454 1h 50m Denver DEN 10:55 → OAK 12:25WN 1577 8h 30m 97% 83%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 16:25 → DEN 19:05WN 2456 3h 05m Denver DEN 22:10 → OAK 23:50WN 1650 10h 25m 92% 70%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 14:00 → DEN 16:20WN 2455 2h 30m Denver DEN 18:50 → OAK 20:25WN 1843 9h 25m 97% 67%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 17:30 → MDW 19:20WN 4746 2h 20m Chicago MDW 21:40 → OAK 00:15 +1WN 4042 9h 45m 89% 66%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 12:35 → DAL 15:10WN 4570 2h 20m Dallas DAL 17:30 → OAK 19:14WN 1894 9h 39m 95% 63%
SouthwestDetails → LGA 10:20 → DEN 12:40WN 1228 1h 01m Denver DEN 13:41 → OAK 15:18WN 1698 7h 58m 77% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON