Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4502 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 4502 LGA 09:10 → PWM 10:33 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2098 LGA 15:48 → PWM 17:13 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4502 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 09:10	PWM 10:33	12%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 4571 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:14	PWM 11:48	13%	4%	0.8%	79%
AA 2931 American Flight history →	LGA 11:13	PWM 12:35	22%	7%	1.3%	92%worse than usual
YX 5803 Republic	LGA 15:26	PWM 16:57	26%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 2098 American	LGA 15:48	PWM 17:13	33%	9%	1.3%	no record
DL 5361 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 08:50	PWM 10:22	10%	4%	0.0%	90%
DL 5346 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 11:00	PWM 12:32	20%	7%	2.4%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON