Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2549 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2549 LGA 06:05 → STL 07:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2551 LGA 15:03 → STL 16:49 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2549 Southwest	LGA 06:05	STL 07:50	3%	1%	0.2%	no record
YX 4340 Republic	LGA 06:54	STL 08:52	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4508 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 07:00	STL 08:52	8%	3%	0.7%	94%
WN 523 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 08:55	STL 10:45	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
AA 4509 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 12:58	STL 14:50	14%	5%	0.7%	84%
WN 2550 Southwest	LGA 12:08	STL 13:54	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 2473 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 12:00	STL 13:40	19%	4%	0.6%	74%
YX 4608 Republic	LGA 14:07	STL 16:05	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 2740 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 15:00	STL 17:00	25%	7%	0.7%	73%
AA 4728 American flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 18:59	STL 20:55	25%	10%	0.7%	67%
WN 4895 Southwest Flight history →	LGA 18:30	STL 20:30	27%	12%	0.7%	49%
WN 2551 Southwest	LGA 15:03	STL 16:49	28%	8%	0.7%	no record
DL 4939 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 06:30	STL 08:08	11%	6%	2.9%	89%
DL 4922 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 10:00	STL 11:47	20%	7%	3.2%	80%
DL 4926 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 18:51	STL 20:46	30%	14%	9.5%	70%
DL 4905 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 13:59	STL 15:50	35%	15%	7.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON