Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today YX 5821 LGA 10:04 → SYR 11:25 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5841 LGA 10:18 → SYR 11:36 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 5821 Republic	LGA 10:04	SYR 11:25	15%	2%	0.4%	no record
DL 5841 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	LGA 10:18	SYR 11:36	16%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 5524 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 21:45	SYR 23:12	32%	16%	12.5%	68%
DL 5062 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	LGA 15:52	SYR 17:26	35%	9%	10.4%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON